Yes you can make local friends in northern Germany, here's how

(20 May 2025) Unfriendly? Us? No way! Okay, so the lady doth protest too much. Hamburg residents can be reserved. But are we really, a some readers of The Local have recently claimed, "a beautiful city with unfriendly people"? No, we really aren't. It just takes us some time to show our friendliness - and new arrivals might need to be patient with us. So here's my advice for making friends in Hamburg. (Extra points if you can spot not just the obvious musical reference in the last line, but the slightly evident one...)

The five challenges facing Germany's next chancellor - Friedrich "Freddie Mercury" Merz

(2 May 2025) Now that the SPD membership has given its accord to the planned coalition with the CDU/CSU, Friedrich Merz will be elected chancellor in the coming days - barring politically suicidal stick-in-the-mud SPD rebels, of course (of which it would, however, only take 13; 'Grand Coalitions' ain't as grand they used to be...)

Comparatively inexperienced in the business of government (in fact: totally), Merz will need beginners luck to make a decent fist of his daunting in-tray. In this analysis for The Local, I look at what the most pressing issues are for his incoming government - and estimate the skills he will need to display at 'Freddie Mercury level' on a scale of rockstars. Can Freddie rock us, or will he bite the dust...?

 

 

What to expect when Germany's coalition talks conclude

(29 March 2025) If it seems like things have gone quiet in Berlin, that's partly due to the fact that things have got even louder everywhere else. Nevertheless, it is indeed due to the relatively calm and collected atmosphere in preliminary coalition negotiations between the CDU/CSU and SPD - a tranquility which has remained undisturbed even as talks go into the final stretch.

Mainly, this is because the main hurdle - money - was taken earlier this month. Nevertheless, not all spending quandaries have been solved (most notably on benefits and pensions) and, perhaps more importantly in coalition negotiations, a range of other political and cultural questions still need answers. Not least: will Germany revoke cannabis legalisation...? Read my outline of where the parties still have some way to go here in The Local.

Germany has ditched the debt brake, but what will the consequences be?

(17 March 2025) "Really, 'ditched'? I thought they'd just loosened it...", I hear some of you ask. No, make no mistake about it: the loosening started long ago; this is now ditching in all but name. 

How so? Well, having lashed itself to the mast with its cast-iron fiscal rules in 2008, Germany has actually been wriggling with its wrists for some time now already, starting back in 2020 with 'one-off' measures to combat the effect of Covid. Then, there were further 'exceptional, one-time-only' off-the-books funds set up to deal with the effects of the Ukraine war. Now, there's another swathe of 'Seriously, guys, we're only doing this once more! Honest...'-spending so large that it represents almost the entire government budget for a year. In addition, defence spending above 1% of GDP will no longer be counted under fiscal rules... 

So yes, Germany has de facto abolished its debt brake, even if it is keeping it de jure. What does that mean? Here's my analysis for The Local.

Merz is on top but the Left are surprise winners in Germany's dramatic election

(24 February 2024) It took longer than usual for the smoke to clear last night: generally, German elections are almost stereotypically fast and efficient, with polls accurate and counts speedy. But with two parties, Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht BSW and the FDP Liberals, at just below the 5% hurdle, it took a while to work out who would even be sitting. (Spoiler alert: neither of these two.) Then there was the new system for assigning Bundestag seats meeting its first test with electoral reality…

This reality is that every party except far-left Die Linke (last night's surprise success story) has missed its goals. Even the triumphant AfD was hoping for more than its strong showing 20.8%, and the victorious CDU didn't get over the psychologically important 30% mark. The fact that it didn't means that it will now govern with the SPD (down badly, but not out) with a majority of just 12... The Greens have been revealed to have a core vote of around 10% on which they can rely even in crisis, but no more.

Thanks to the effect of Die Linke's stonking performance on parliamentary arithmetic, Friedrich Merz can form a two-party administration and the AfD cannot block legislation. Yet this is little consolation to a country facing another four years of, at best, semi-stable government - and, at worst, another term of political wrangling. Read more from me on the results in The Local.

 

Maverick Merz will be an unpredictable chancellor

(14 February 2025) It's not too early to call: in the German elections next weekend, the right-of-centre CDU/CSU formation will be the largest party and - barring a real upset - CDU leader Friedrich Merz will lead the next government.

So what will life under Chancellor Merz be like? In a word: unpredictable. Despite marketing himself as a straight-talking man of his word, Merz has already broken a solemn promise not to bring motions into Bundestag which will only pass with support from the far-right AfD, accepting their support to push through an anti-immigration resolution. Whether he was driven by his emotions or rank cynicism after the horrific stabbing of a toddler by an asylum seeker is neither here nor there: Merz is a maverick.

My bet is that this was cynicism straight out of the Nixon 'madman theory' textbook, designed to remind potential coalition partners like the SPD and the Greens that, if necessary, Merz can get his majorities elsewhere. In a strange way, I hope that was the case: if it wasn't, then Merz accidentally got into bed with the far-right out of a surfeit of sensibility or tactical miscalculation. Not the kind of guy you want in charge... Read more from me on Chancellor Merz will be like in The Local.

There's no way of stopping the rise of the far-right AfD in Germany - yet

(23 January 2025) With four weeks left until Germany's general election, there’s a political algebra problem to which everyone in Berlin discreetly trying to find the answer. Let x be the number of deadly attacks, y be the number of people killed, and z be the rise in support for the AfD...

No-one is going to admit in public that they're working on this equation, but that is bare bones of the matter. For now, none of the parties of government have credibility on the issues of immigration and asylum. Changes to the system and improvements in how potential perpetrators with psychiatric disorders are managed will take years to show. As I explain for The Local, in this election, the mathematical rule is immutable.

Five things to expect in Germany's snap elections

(6 January 2025) The Christmas trees are coming down - and the gloves are coming off in Germany's general election campaign. Not that the parties have been exactly courteous to each other thus far (see the Olaf Scholz/"Fritze" Merz spat late last year...), but as of today, with Christmas past and sufficient distance to the Magdeburg murders observed, expect the real campaigning to start ahead of 23 February. Here are a few other things to expect over the coming eight weeks - written up for The Local.

Germany’s coalition lost its way and the path forward is unclear

(8 November 2024) It set out three years ago to be "more than the sum of its parts", but Germany’s three-party coalition soon proved considerably less. In fact, barely a year into its term, it had nothing left but the lowest common denominator. Now it has failed. 

In some ways, this wasn't a surprise: internal strife was constant, rumblings about the FDP leaving frequent. Yet precisely because of this consistent low-level noise, few observers were expecting the big bang on Wednesday night - all the less so since the Trump victory ought to, by rights, have galvanised the administration and given it renewed common purpose. Now, its failure leaves behind a fractured political landscape with no obvious path forward at the worst conceivable moment.

Why did this happen? Who is to blame? And what comes next? Read my analysis for The Local to find out more.

The state of healthcare in Germany has become worryingly frail

(18 October 2024) To anyone who has been following the debate in recent years, it's nothing new: Germany spends a higher percentage of its national income than its European neighbours for worse health outcomes. What has changed of late, though, is that the actual availability of basic provision is declining: doctors' appointments are like gold dust and pharmacists are having to mix their own medicines. Why this is now happening, why things won't change any time soon - and why we can no longer afford to let private patients game the system - is the subject of my latest analysis for The Local.

Attitudes to foreigners in Germany are hardening and should concern us all

(27 September 2024) Readers of The Local are primarily people from abroad living in Germany, either temporarily or permanently. And these readers are worried. After three regional elections in which the far-right AfD won (Thuringia) or came second (Saxony, Brandenburg), rendering all three states near-ungovernable, they are now looking ahead with trepidation to the next general election, scheduled a year and a day from now.

While the AfD is unlikely to head the polls nationally, it could well become the second or third-largest party in the next Bundestag. And the next government will almost certainly be headed from the right by Friedrich Merz's CDU. Although Merz and his party are by no means a clear and present danger, he has none the less made no bones about his own xenophobic attitudes and an administration with him at the helm will represent the hardening of Germany's attitude towards immigration. Read how I reach these conclusions in The Local. 

After UK and French elections, Germany's headaches this summer lie at home

(08 July 2024) Gambling is dangerous - which is why I don't do it, especially on politics. This isn't because, like certain British Conservatives or coppers, I could cost someone their seat or be hauled up in front of a disciplinary, but because no-one is as clever as they think (and definitely not cleverer than the bookies). 

Indeed, the last few days have been proof that I, too, can get it wrong. Usually, my generally pessimistic outlook is justified: "What can go wrong, will go wrong." Yet in both the UK and France, things have gone surprisingly well - especially the French elections, where a far-right victory was odds-on. What is more, I didn't think the Berlin coalition would manage to agree on a budget for 2025 - but it did late last week.

So is all well in the Ampel? Only time will tell... (And I'm not placing any bets.) Here's my assessment of the what the last week mean for Germany, as ever for The Local.

A Prussian officer: Conscription in Germany from Scharnhorst to Mann—and back

(01 July 2024) While Rishi Sunak floundered around looking for a campaign issue and alighted on national service, leader of the opposition centre-right CDU Friedrich Merz also prodded the dormant issue of conscription: yes, in these worrying times, Europe's (just about still) centre-right is rediscovering the draft as a comfort-blanket electoral issue.

In Germany, the history of conscription stretches back almost uninterrupted to the early 19th century, when it was as much an expression of Enlightenment values and the promise of citizenship as an obligation to military service. In this essay for The Irenaut, I trace the contrasting values behind the draft - and the various ways German men have attempted to evade it. Read my thoughts - and those of many others - in this issue on conscription. 

French elections: The roar from below

(15 June 2024) Following Emmanuel Macron's bold move to dissolve parliament and call parliamentary elections (What's the French for "Who governs…?" again? Asking for a historical comparison), Christophe Guilluy has written an engaging piece for the New Statesman looking at why this gamble - in his view, just the latest in a series of questionable bets made by the French governing class - may backfire. As ever, a pleasure to translate.

What we can learn from Germany's contrasting election results

(10 June 2024) Last weekend saw the European Elections and, in several German states, ballots for local authorities, too. At EU level, while far-right parties increased their share of the vote, the centre held - and looking at Germany's results in the European Elections, the same is (just about) true, despite a drubbing for the SPD and good results for a motley crew of the weird-and-wonderfuls. Yet at local level in the states of the former East, things are looking bad. Read my analysis of what this set of elections tells us about German politics here.

Why it's becoming harder to get a doctor's appointment in Germany

(17 May 2024) For all of its quirks and inefficiencies, Germany's health systems remains ones of the world's best. In few countries is it as easy for somebody paying according to their income (not their condition) to access a broad range of high-quality medical services. However, as the years go by, doctor's retire or go part-time, and private patients get preference, it is getting slightly less easy. Here's my analysis of why in the The Local.

Navigating human landscapes: From Rungholt to Miniaturwunderland

(8 April 2024) The Irenaut is a new magazine with a bold mission: to explore the human genius for peace and chart the violence that stifles it. In its second issue, it focusses on anthropodicy - the question of whether humans are fundamentally good and, by extension, whether our existence as a species can be justified.

In an essay I've contributed on this theme, I approach the concept by looking at the human geography of Germany - a country on which, especially in the north, we as a species have left a particularly indelible mark, and about the landscapes of which we have spilled no shortage of ink.

What do Germany's literary (and not-so-literary) landscapes and places say about the human relationship to the natural environment? What, in turn, does this say about us? And what do we say about ourselves?  Read my essay: 'Navigating human landscapes: From Rungholt to Miniaturwunderland'.

Germany's new cannabis law isn't dangerous - it's common sense

(1 April 2024) Every country which legalizes cannabis goes about it in its own characteristic way - so in Germany, that means endless angst-y debates, federal-state media-grandstanding, and a hellishly complex end result. As such, it will, as of today, be legal to own up to three cannabis plants and possess 50g of dried weed at home (25g on your person when you're out) and you will be able to buy it, but only through registered cannabis associations which will have to conform to eingetragener Verein standards...

You get the picture. Yet the law is, while typically tricky, broadly sensible, in the spirit of public health and harm prevention, and a boon to everyone who just wants a puff every now and then. Put my opinion on it for The Local in your pipe and smoke it!

Even with German citizenship reform foreigners must be wary of lurch to the far-right

(25 January 2024) Two weeks on from the Correctiv exclusive about right-wing extremists meeting in Potsdam to discuss mass deportations from Germany (including of German citizens) it's all had some time to sink in. In my analysis (for The Local), there is no immediate danger either of the far-right AfD getting into power or of this party enacting the kind of plans discussed; there is, however, a serious medium-term risk of a political spectrum weighted ever more towards the right in which UK/US-style 'hostile environment' policies leave foreign-born German citizens vulnerable. Those of us who could be sent 'back' somewhere need contingency plans.

Germany faces a hellish year in politics amid rise of far-right

(4 January 2024) No-one likes being the purveyor of terrible news, but the outlook for Germany in 2024 is... well, terrible. Our government has now irrevocably disappointed even those few of us who still saw some potential in it - and is facing a drubbing in a range of elections which will be read as plebiscites (and may lead to its premature end). Meanwhile, everyone from train drivers from farmers is on strike and the economy is still anaemic. Fun times, as I explain for The Local.

Does Emmanuel Macron understand France?

(22 November 2023) I've just translated a think-piece written for the New Statesman by geographer and essayist Christophe Guilluy. In it, he argues that France's various rebellious movements of recent decades - the Non! to a European constitution, the surges for Le Pen candidates at presidential elections, the gilets jaunes - are all part of a wider, grass-roots-and-common-sense groundswell against a predatory capitalist system. Read his point of view here.

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